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Title: Impacts of long-term climate varibility and climate change on flood frequency: Susannah Brook, Western Australia Authored by: Samuel, J., Sivapalan, M. and Franks, S.W. Abstract:
In this paper we investigate the propagation of long-term climate variabilities and climate changes through a catchment system to the flood frequency curve, through the use of a rainfall-runoff model that captures rainfall and water balance variability at a multiplicity of time scales, ranging from event to seasonal, inter-annual and inter-decadal time scales. This modelling investigation is carried out in the Susannah Brook catchment, Western Australia. Analysis of the results shows that, for example, a 10-year flood may change over to a 15-year flood over the next 50 years, due to a possible declining rainfall trend. Similarly, the 25-year flood may become a 40-year flood over the same period. These results suggest that engineers will need to come up with creative changes to traditional flood frequency estimation procedures to deal with long-term climate variability and changes.
Reference: Samuel, J., Sivapalan, M. and Franks, S.W., 2005, Impacts of long-term climate varibility and climate change on flood frequency: Susannah Brook, Western Australia, Regional Hydrological Impacts of Climate Change - Impact Assessment and Decision Making. Proceedings of symposium S6 held during the 7th IAHS Scientific Assembly at Foz do Iguaçu, Brazil, 3-9 April. Edited by T. Wagener, S. Franks, H.V. Gupta, E. Bøgh, L, Bastidas, C. Nobre and C. DeO. Galvado. IAHS publication 295, 2005, , 1.5 Oceania: 201-208 Keywords: climate change, climate variability, flood frequency, inter-annual, inter-decadal |
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